In the March 15th Presidential Preference Primary the winners across Missouri, Illinois and the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were the same. Hillary Clinton prevailed in all three on the Democratic side, as did Donald Trump in the Republican primaries.
In the St. Louis MSA Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders 51.8% to 47.3% while Trump was on top of the Republican field with 40.7% with Ted Cruz coming in a close second with 39.6%.
In both primaries, Brentwood, Maplewood, and Richmond Heights had their own flavor that differed from the region and the state. While margin of victory in the Democratic contest was very narrow in two of the cities, Sanders was the victor in all three of these municipalities and one city really felt the Bern. On the Republican side, John Kasich and Marco Rubio greatly over performed compared to the MSA and the state, but it was clear from the results that support for the Rubio campaign was fading by time Missouri got to vote. Trump squeaked out a win in only one of the three cities and in one municipality Cruz and Kasich both beat Trump, relegating the Donald to a third place finish.
In these three municipalities the voter turnout was above average, as turnout across St. Louis County was at 45.9% of registered voters. Turnout was up from the last two Presidential Primary elections in Missouri. This fits with the trend across the country this year with more people participating in Presidential Primary contests.*** Across St. Louis County more voters took a Democratic ballot than a Republican one and that held true across Brentwood, Maplewood, and Richmond Heights.
See the data: 2016 March Election Analysis for 40 South
Brentwood
In Brentwood 52% of registered voters went to the polls with 47.8% taking a Republican ballot and 52.2% voting in the Democratic primary. Sanders squeaked out a win in Brentwood, edging Clinton out by a mere 8 votes, 810 to 802. The ranking of the candidates in Brentwood in the Republican contest was the same as it was in the St. Louis MSA, with Trump in first, followed by Cruz, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio. The margin of victory, however, was substantially different. Trump narrowly defeated Cruz, and Kasich and Rubio both performed better than they did statewide or across the region. Trump got 33.9%, Cruz 33.3%, Kasich 28.4%, and Rubio 13.1%. Kasich and Rubio more than doubled their percent of the vote share in Brentwood compared to the state and the MSA. Trump barely got more than one third of the vote, but was it was enough in the divided field to take first place.
Maplewood
Maplewood had a slightly higher voter turnout with 53% of registered voters showing up to the polls. It also had the most lopsided party participation with 72% taking Democratic ballots and only 28% voting in the Republican primary. On the Republican side Cruz pulled an upset over Donald Trump in Maplewood. Cruz captured 37.1% to Trump’s 34.5%. Kasich was in third with 17.8% and Rubio in fourth with 10.5%. In the Democratic race, Maplewood felt the Bern. Sanders had the largest margin of victory of the three cities in Maplewood, taking 62.2% of the vote to Clinton’s 37.8%.
Richmond Heights
51% of registered voters made it to the polls in Richmond Heights for the Presidential Preference Primary. 63.4% of voters took a Democratic ballot and 36.7% of voters took a Republican ballot. In the Democratic Primary Sanders got 61 more votes than Clinton. Sanders received 51.1% of the vote to Clinton’s 48.9%. There stunning upset in the Republican Primary in Richmond Heights. Cruz and Kasich tied for first with a tie – 479 votes for Cruz and 479 votes for Kasich. Trump came in third place with 27.9%, behind 29.2% each for Cruz and Kasich. Rubio was again in fourth with 12 .1%.
*** In 2012 turnout was down dramatically as the primary election didn’t count on the Republican side and the sitting President was a lock for the Democratic nomination. 2008, on the other hand, had competitive contests for both Republicans and Democrats, as was the case this year.
Area-wide results, courtesy the St. Louis Regional Chamber
We're curious to get your analysis of the data from the Presidential Primary results in the St. Louis region. pic.twitter.com/P8lCQBeMNr
— St. Louis Regional Chamber (@STLRegChamber) March 17, 2016